Berkeley Innovation: crossing scales & disciplines

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, with the University of California Berkeley and the City of Berkeley, recently named a Resilient City create a powerful triangle for research, from macro to micro scale, from supercomputing to life sciences, and its integration across a range of scales and disciplines and application.

Early Warning Systems for Severe Weather Response

Developing early warning systems for severe weather response requires integrating three types of tools:
1. Big data analysis, visualization and prediction to assess probabilities of extreme weather events;

2. Expert polling and visualization of the spectrum of opinions gathered on key issues where decision-making is required;

3. Participatory mapping and decision support tools that communities can use to locate specific issues that need to be addressed and link to information resources and status updates so that all those able to contribute can be rapidly updated on the current status of the project.

Comparing images taken at different times allows scientists to infer possible rates of climate change.

Debate continues about how quickly global climate change will occur and what the long term impacts will be. But short term extreme events include devastating storms, from Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines to monsoon flooding in Asia to extreme drought in many parts of the world. Urban storms, from Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans to Hurricane Sandy in New York and recent flooding in Chennai, India show how devastating storm impact can be in densely populated areas.

1) Big Data Analysis

TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis) is an extreme event detection and climate analysis package for high performance computing. In the era of ‘Big Data’, mining large observational products (satellite measurements, ground-based readings) and massive climate simulations to detect patterns that enable prediction is treated as a classic image classification task.

TECA is a set of applications built on its extensible open source framework (C++) that includes a core set of climate detection and analysis algorithms for atmospheric river detection, tropical and extra tropical cyclone detection. The team has achieved good classification performance for extreme weather patterns: 99% accuracy for Tropical Cyclones, 90.5% (US Atmospheric Rivers) and 89.5% (European Atmospheric Rivers).

TECA is an application of Deep Learning, state-of-the-art machine learning harnessed to find spatio-temporal patterns using the Neon Deep Learning Framework by Nervana Systems. The results from applying this method are used to characterize statistical changes in extreme weather events (both their intensity and frequency) under climate change scenarios.

TECA, a complex tool that requires expert management and interpretation, is complemented by several simpler tools that can communicate directly with the community.

2) Expert Polling and Visualization

Near Zero has developed a survey and visualization tool to gather input on debated questions and visualize the results. Near Zero produces scientific assessments of energy and climate issues. Near Zero projects use innovative online tools to engage expert opinion on the best opportunities for progress toward near-zero emissions, based on scientific data and expert judgment. A guiding principle is to reveal where experts agree and disagree and why, highlighting areas of consensus and controversy, rather than advocating any one perspective. Near Zero integrates this expert knowledge with quantitative modeling and analysis to demonstrate the implications of different views and potential choices. The result is a dynamic digital cache of credible, impartial, and actionable information to support policy and investment decisions.

3) Participatory mapping and decision support tools

The map below of existing biomes, defined as large geographical areas of distinctive plant and animal groups adapted to that particular environment, may change with climate change faster than species can adapt.

The human species will also suffer. Heat Stress is expected to have most severe impact on densely populated regions in the 21st century. Globally, heat kills more people than any other weather-related event. With temperatures and humidity expected to increase in the coming decades, heat stress is projected to have increasingly severe impacts on many regions of the world. Researchers estimate the global exposure to fatal heat stress throughout the 21st century and its effects on human health, infrastructure, power generation, and economic performance.

This short video shows the broad spectrum of Lawrence Berkeley Lab research to address a diversity of challenges in an era of rapid change.

The American Geophysical Union (AGU) Thriving Earth Exchange focuses on how community science offers a unique method for designing solutions: scientists and community experts work together to define, scope, and solve community-driven challenges. Thriving Earth Exchange partners use community science to design, and evaluate recommended solutions to natural resources, climate change, and natural hazards, connecting scientists and community leaders.

As Kelly Redmond of the Desert Research Institute noted, “Since the middle 20th Century, and earlier, a large variety of climate services have become available to existing and potential users needing climate information to inform a decision of interest to them.”

Originally, most such information was supplied as original or edited data, sometimes developed information, but generally intended to enable rapid response to frequently asked questions in the form of tables, graphics and sometimes narratives. With the rise of the internet this approach evolved into capacity to generate tailored summaries on demand, where the user can control date intervals, statistical thresholds, formats, substance and style. The combined efforts of NOAA and the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) with the American Association of State Climatologists, and increasingly more sophisticated users and applications, demand a systematic approach, with explicit engagement of stakeholders, to learn which applications to develop or improve, supported by recent merger of three centers into NCEI, the National Center for Environmental Information.